دانشگاه اصفهان نشریه پژوهش های حسابداری مالی 2322-3405 18 1 2026 05 22 Applying the Best-Worst Method in Ranking the Factors Affecting the Occurrence of Fraud in Financial Statements Based on the Fraud Hexagon Theory به‌کارگیری روش بهترین-بدترین در رتبه‌بندی عوامل مؤثر بر وقوع تقلب در صورت‌های مالی بر اساس نظریۀ شش‌ضلعی تقلب 1 44 30649 10.22108/far.2026.148347.2209 FA نوید رضا نمازی استادیار، گروه حسابداری، دانشکده اقتصاد، مدیریت و علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه شیراز، شیراز، ایران 0000-0002-4030-9585 مرضیه یوسفی نژاد دانشجوی دکتری، گروه حسابداری، دانشکده اقتصاد، مدیریت و علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه شیراز، شیراز، ایران Journal Article 2026 02 13 Financial statements are the most important source of information for making appropriate economic decisions. Therefore, the presence of fraud in such reports with the intention of influencing the decision-making processes of stakeholders and inducing a favorable financial situation is considered a serious threat to the growth and prosperity of the economy. In this regard, identifying the factors affecting the occurrence of fraud in financial statements can restore stakeholders' trust in the capital market and lead to economic development and improved social welfare. The main goal of the present study is to provide empirical evidence of the effectiveness of the fraud hexagon theory in identifying fraudulent financial statements using information from 117 companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange during the years 2016 to 2025 using the F-Score fraud measurement model using the structural equation model and the best-worst method for weighting and ranking the elements of the fraud hexagon. The findings from the study of 37 variables in the form of six hypotheses based on the fraud hexagon theory showed that the elements of pressure, opportunity, rationalization, ability, and arrogance have a significant effect on the occurrence of fraud in financial statements, and the pressure element is considered the most important factor in the occurrence of fraud in financial statements. The results of the present study, in addition to expanding the theoretical foundations of the field of fraud, can provide useful information to investors, analysts, suppliers, and managers to make appropriate economic decisions. <strong>Introduction</strong> Financial statement fraud involves the intentional distortion or misclassification of items in financial statements with the intention of influencing the decision-making processes of stakeholders and inducing a favorable financial position of the company (Yahaya & Ibrahim, 2024). Therefore, it is considered a targeted manipulation to present a favorable image of the company's performance in order to achieve goals such as receiving compensation based on accounting profit, maintaining or increasing market price and minimizing tax liabilities, achieving projected figures and financing the company at the lowest cost (Bekhradinasb & Khoshdel, 2023). The importance of identifying and preventing fraud in financial statements can be understood through its widespread consequences on the economy. According to the Association of Certified Fraud Examiners [ACFE], financial statement fraud is one of the most common and costly types of fraud (Association of Certified Fraud Examiners [ACFE], 2024) because it disrupts the fair distribution of wealth and wastes limited economic resources, weakens the reliability and quality of the financial reporting process, imposes huge financial losses on investors and creditors, destroys the value of the company, undermines trust in the business community and the accounting and auditing profession, and ultimately jeopardizes the efficiency of the capital market (Wang et al., 2023). In this regard, there is an urgent need to identify the factors affecting the occurrence of financial statement fraud, as it will increase the ability to predict, prevent, and detect financial statement fraud and provide the opportunity to reduce the heavy material and non-material costs resulting from it. In recent years, different theories and perspectives have been presented on improving the ability of stakeholders to predict, detect, and prevent fraud in financial statements. However, with the increasing spread of fraud cases in financial statements and their combination with the issue of corporate bankruptcy, there is an urgent need to conduct more research in the field of identifying factors and methods that affect the prediction, detection, and prevention of fraud in financial statements. According to the studies conducted, no research has been conducted so far on identifying and ranking factors that affect the occurrence of fraud in financial statements using the six-sided theory of fraud using the best-worst multi-criteria decision-making method in Iran. Therefore, the present study intends to cover the gap in question as much as possible, so the research questions are empirically posed and examined as follows: 1. Does the six-sided theory of fraud have a significant relationship with the probability of fraud in financial statements? 2. Which element of the six-sided theory of fraud has a significant relationship with the likelihood of fraud in financial statements? 3. Which element of the six-sided theory of fraud has the greatest and the least impact on the occurrence of fraud in financial statements?   <strong>Methods & Materials</strong> The present study was considered exploratory research because it identifies and prioritizes factors affecting the likelihood of fraud in financial statements. Since the results can be useful in decision-making by stakeholders, the study is classified as applied research. It is empirical and post-event research because it is based on real information from the financial statements of companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange. In order to develop theoretical foundations, library and archival methods have been used, and the information required for calculating variables and testing hypotheses has been collected from reports available on the Tehran Stock Exchange (CODAL) website and the new Rahavard Novin software. With the help of Excel software, variables were calculated from raw data, and then, using the structural equation model based on partial least squares in Smart PLS software, factors affecting the probability of fraud were identified. Finally, in order to rank the hexagonal elements of fraud, the multi-criteria decision-making method of the best-worst model will be used.   <strong>Findings</strong> According to the test of research hypotheses and t-statistics and the significance level for the elements of pressure, opportunity, rationalization, and ability, it can be concluded that the first, second, third, and fourth hypotheses of the study based on the effect of the elements of pressure (rate of return on assets, rate of return on equity, asset turnover rate, sales growth, gross profit margin, and free cash flow), opportunity (independence of board members, number of audit committee members, and expertise of audit committee members), rationalization (ratio of accruals and restatement of financial statements), and ability (profit management and disclosure of the cost of doubtful receivables and contingent liabilities) on the probability of fraud in financial statements have been accepted. Since the significance level of the t-statistic of the element of arrogance (bonus paid to the manager and earnings per share) is less than 0.1, the fifth hypothesis of the study based on the effect of the element of arrogance on the probability of fraud in financial statements is confirmed at a confidence level of 90 percent. Finally, regarding the sixth hypothesis, the results show that the significance level of the t-statistic of the collusion element (market performance and audit fee) is greater than 0.05, hence, with a significance level of 0.25, it has no effect on the occurrence of fraud in financial statements. After determining the effects of the elements of pressure, opportunity, rationalization, ability, and arrogance on the occurrence of fraud in financial statements, it is time to prioritize these elements using the best-worst method in five steps, including identifying the factors affecting the occurrence of fraud in financial statements, determining the best (most effective) and worst (least effective) factors without making any comparisons, performing pairwise comparisons of the best factor with other factors, performing pairwise comparisons of other factors with the worst factor, and finally determining the weight of the factors and using a linear model to calculate the optimization of the weight of the factors. The results of weighting and ranking the factors affecting the occurrence of fraud in financial statements showed that the pressure element with a weight of 0.59 ranked first among the most influential factors affecting the occurrence of fraud in financial statements. The opportunity and ability elements ranked second with a weight of 0.12, followed by the rationalization element with a weight of 0.10, and finally the arrogance element ranked last with a weight of 0.06. Also, the consistency rate of 0.0236 indicates that the comparisons have high consistency and stability.   <strong>Conclusion & Results</strong> With the increasing spread of fraud cases in financial statements and its combination with the issue of corporate bankruptcy, there is an urgent need to conduct more research in the field of identifying factors and methods effective in predicting, detecting, and preventing fraud in financial statements in order to restore stakeholders' trust in capital markets. Therefore, the purpose of the present study is to provide empirical evidence of the effectiveness of the hexagonal theory of fraud in identifying fraudulent financial statements in order to provide stakeholders with solutions to identify fraudulent companies. In order to achieve this, information from 117 companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange between 2016 and 2025 was used with the help of the F-Score fraud model to identify and separate fraudulent from non-fraudulent companies, using the structural equation model and the best-worst method as one of the modern multi-criteria decision-making methods to weight and rank the hexagonal elements of fraud. In order to measure the effect of the pressure element on the occurrence of fraud in financial statements, the first hypothesis was tested, and the results showed that managers unable to achieve predetermined goals, unstable companies involved in external pressures, and finally, managers with financial needs under internal and external pressures are encouraged to manipulate financial statements, which supports the hexagonal theory of fraud based on the effect of the pressure element on the occurrence of fraud in financial statements. Accepting the second hypothesis based on the effect of the opportunity element on the occurrence of fraud in financial statements showed that by strengthening the supervisory mechanism and having a maximum number of non-executive board members, the opportunity to commit fraud can be reduced. Rationalization is a type of management self-justification in which the manager believes that he has worked more for the company than the owners, therefore encouraging the owners to take steps to maximize their personal interests (Jannah et al., 2021). This claim was proven by the results of the test of the third hypothesis based on the effect of the rationalization element on the occurrence of fraud in financial statements. As the legal representative of shareholders, the manager has the ability not to always act in accordance with the interests of the owners and to seek to maximize his own interests. In order to prove this claim, the fourth hypothesis, that the element of ability affects the occurrence of fraud in financial statements, was tested. The results of the test proved the existence of an effect. The result of the fifth hypothesis that the element of arrogance affects the probability of fraud in financial statements is in line with the six-sided theory of fraud; because the view of superiority and entitlement encourages managers to carry out activities in order to maximize their interests and creates in them the feeling that they have power that internal controls are unable to limit and that their fraud will never be revealed or that there will be no punishment if it is revealed (Siregar, 2019). The result of the test of the sixth hypothesis indicates that the element of collusion does not affect the occurrence of fraud in financial statements. After identifying the elements that affect the occurrence of fraud in financial statements, including pressure, opportunity, justification, ability, and arrogance, it is time to prioritize them. One of the innovative aspects of the present study is the use of the best-worst method to rank the elements affecting the occurrence of fraud in financial statements, because according to the studies conducted, most of the studies have used the hierarchical approach (AHP) to rank the factors affecting fraud in financial statements. The implementation of the best-worst method showed that among the elements affecting the occurrence of fraud in financial statements, the pressure element with a coefficient of 0.59 is the most influential element among other elements affecting the occurrence of fraud in financial statements, which is supported by the results of the study by Masoumi et al. (2020) that the pressure element is important among the elements of the fraud triangle (pressure, opportunity, and justification) and by Apriliani et al. (2024) that the pressure element is important among the elements of the fraud pentagon (pressure, opportunity, justification, ability, and arrogance). However, this result is contrary to the findings of the study by Kimasi and Soleimani-Amiri (2024), in which the pressure element has a weak effect and the opportunity element has a strong effect on the dimensions of the fraud triangle. صورت‌های مالی مهم‌ترین منبع اطلاعاتی برای اتخاذ تصمیم‌های مناسب اقتصادی به شمار می‌آیند؛ از این رو، وجود تقلب در این دست گزارش‌ها با قصد تأثیرگذاری بر فرایندهای تصمیم‌گیری ذی‌نفعان و القای وضعیت مالی مطلوب تهدیدی جدی برای رشد و شکوفایی اقتصاد به حساب می‌آید. در این راستا، شناسایی عوامل مؤثر بر وقوع تقلب در صورت‌های مالی می‌تواند اعتماد ذی‌نفعان به بازار سرمایه را بازگرداند و توسعۀ اقتصادی و بهبود رفاه اجتماعی را به دنبال داشته باشد. هدف اصلی پژوهش حاضر ارائۀ شواهد تجربی از تأثیرگذاری نظریۀ شش‌ضلعی تقلب بر شناسایی صورت‌های مالی متقلبانه به کمک اطلاعات 117 شرکت پذیرفته‌شده در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران در طول سال‌های 1394 تا 1403 به کمک مدل سنجش تقلب F-Score با بهره‌گیری از مدل معادلات ساختاری و روش بهترین-بدترین برای وزن‌دهی و رتبه‌بندی عناصر شش‌ضلعی تقلب است. یافته‌های حاصل از بررسی 37 متغیر در قالب شش فرضیه بر مبنای نظریۀ شش‌ضلعی تقلب نشان داد عناصر فشار، فرصت، منطقی‌سازی، توانایی و تکبر تأثیری معنادار بر وقوع تقلب در صورت‌های مالی دارند و عنصر فشار مهم‌ترین عامل بروز تقلب در صورت‌های مالی محسوب می‌شود. نتایج پژوهش حاضر علاوه بر گسترش مبانی نظری حوزۀ تقلب می‌تواند اطلاعاتی سودمند در اختیار سرمایه‌گذاران، تحلیلگران، تأمین‌کنندگان و مدیران برای اتخاذ تصمیم‌های مناسب اقتصادی قرار دهد. <strong> </strong>   https://far.ui.ac.ir/article_30649_29b9b08097c2ac96d70afed2828a310f.pdf